A Historic El Niño Could Heighten Weather Risks Through Fall & Winter

What Is El Niño?

El Niño is a climate pattern marked by warmer than usual sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. These warmer waters shift wind patterns, which can influence weather around the globe. El Niño often pushes global temperatures higher. The strong El Niño of 2023-24 contributed to 2024 becoming the hottest year on record. Depending on location, El Niño can also increase the risk of drought, heat waves, heavy rainfall and severe storms. The World Meteorological Organization first warned of El Niño’s arrival in early June. Since then, it has grown far stronger than many early forecasts suggested.

How Is El Niño Strength Measured?

Forecasters measure El Niño by how much warmer the Pacific is than normal over a three-month period. As of 2026, the official measure is the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI). Events are generally classified as follows:

• Weak: 0.5 to 0.9 degrees Celsius above normal
• Moderate: 1.0 to 1.4 degrees Celsius above normal
• Strong: 1.5 to 1.9 degrees Celsius above normal
• Very strong: 2.0 degrees Celsius above normal and higher

A reading of 2.5 degrees Celsius and higher would make this a historic event. In September, key Pacific readings had already reached 2.1 degrees Celsius above normal. A stronger El Niño does not guarantee severe weather. It does make El Niño-related impacts more likely.

What Could This Mean for New England?

Every El Niño is different. In general, El Niño winters in the Northeast tend to be milder than usual, with less consistent snowfall. That does not mean a quiet season. Coastal storms and heavy rain events are still possible, and rain falling on frozen ground can lead to flooding in basements and low-lying areas. El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity. Elsewhere in the country, the southern United States often sees wetter conditions, while parts of the north and west may run warmer and drier.

Why Should Homeowners Take Note?

Regardless of what the season brings, fall is a good time to take stock of your home’s readiness. Clean gutters and downspouts, inspect your roof for any maintenance needs, test sump pumps, and make sure drainage around your foundation is working properly. Taking proactive steps now can help prevent small issues from becoming costly repairs and may even help you avoid potential insurance claims altogether.

It’s also a good opportunity to review emergency supplies, update home inventories, and confirm that important documents are stored securely. Finally, take a few minutes to review your homeowners insurance policy so you understand your coverage and deductibles. If you’ve never explored flood insurance, ask your agent whether it may be worth considering for your property.

Talk to Your Insurance Agent

Questions about your homeowners insurance, deductibles, or flood coverage? Our team can help you understand your options and make informed decisions before the season is in full swing.

Contact Murphy Insurance Agency today to discuss your situation and find the right coverage for your home.