2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast to be ‘Above-Normal’

Led by research scientist Phil Klotzbach, PhD, also a non-resident scholar at the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I), the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team anticipates 19 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes during the 2022 season, which starts on June 1 and continues through Nov. 30.  A typical season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season produced the third-most named storms on record. Seven of last year’s 21 named storms were hurricanes, with four reaching major hurricane intensity. Major hurricanes are defined as those with wind speeds reaching Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Eight named storms made U.S. landfall last year, including Category 4 Hurricane Ida which battered the central Gulf Coast and then brought devastating flooding to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. 2021 was also the seventh consecutive year where at least one named storm formed in either April or May.

“The widespread damage the U.S. experienced last year from tropical systems highlighted the importance of being financially protected from catastrophic losses and that includes having adequate levels of property insurance and flood coverage. In fact, we not only saw historic levels of flooding in coastal areas in 2021, but throughout inland communities as well. All it takes is one storm to make it an active season for you and your family, so it is time to prepare as the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season’s start nears,” said Sean Kevelighan, CEO, Triple-I.

“This is an ideal time for homeowners and business owners to review their policies with an insurance professional to ensure they have the right amount and types of coverage, allowing them to be financially protected from property damage caused by either wind or water,” Kevelighan added. “That also means exploring whether they need flood coverage, which is not part of a standard homeowners, condo, renters or business insurance policy. Additionally, homeowners can make their residences more resilient to windstorms and torrential rain by installing roof tie-downs and a good drainage system.”

Flood policies are offered through FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and several private insurers. The installation of a wind-rated garage door and storm shutters also boost a home’s resilience to a hurricane’s damaging winds, according to the Triple-I, and can potentially provide savings on a homeowners insurance premium.

Private-passenger vehicles damaged or destroyed by either wind or flooding are covered under the optional comprehensive portion of an auto insurance policy.

Through its Resilience Accelerator and other educational materials, the Triple-I offers numerous hurricane season preparedness tips. These include:

• Developing a photo/video inventory of your possessions and your home’s exterior, which will ease the claims-filing process
• Preparing a hurricane emergency kit with a minimum two-week supply of essential items, such as drinking water, non-perishable food and COVID-19 safety items (face coverings, hand sanitizer)
• Creating an evacuation plan well before any storm warnings are issued

Klotzbach said that the low probability of a significant El Niño in the Pacific, indicates another active Atlantic hurricane season is likely on the horizon, and there is an “above-average probability” for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental U.S. coastlines and in the Caribbean.

“While tropical Atlantic water temperatures are currently near their long-term averages, the warmer-than-normal subtropical eastern Atlantic typically forces a weaker subtropical high and associated weaker winds blowing across the tropical Atlantic. These conditions then lead to warmer waters in the tropical Atlantic for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season,” Klotzbach stated.

CSU’s 2022 forecast calls for a 71 percent chance of a major hurricane making a mainland U.S. landfall, 47 percent for the U.S. East Coast including the Florida peninsula, and 46 percent for the Gulf Coast from the Florida peninsula westward to Brownsville, Texas.

Source: Insurance Information Institute